A joint mind consideration of the Drake equation in the search for extraterrestrial intelligence

摘要

Numerous estimates exist of the factors appearing in the Drake equation, which estimates the number of extant communicative civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy. Although each are presented by scholars in the field, wide disagreement of the values of those factors exist. Here we consider the six non-longevity factors as random variables and utilize estimates from six studies to determine probability density functions for those factors. We then utilize them to perform a Monte Carlo analysis to determine the most likely value for the product. We find, in moderately close agreement with the estimate by both Frank Drake and the Cyclops report, a value for the product of 0.85 +/- 1.28 years(-)(1).