Impact of End-of-Life manoeuvres on the collision risk in protected regions

摘要

The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines, issued in 2002 and revised in 2007, address the post mission disposal of objects in orbit. After their mission, objects crossing the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) should have a remaining lifetime in orbit not exceeding 25 years. Objects near the Geostationary Orbit (GEO) region should be placed in an orbit that remains outside of the GEO protected region. In this paper, the impact of satellites and rocket bodies performing End-of-Life (EOL) orbital manoeuvres on the collision risk in the LEO and GEO protected regions is investigated. The cases of full or partial compliance with the IADC post mission disposal guideline are studied. ESA's Meteoroid and Space Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference (MASTER) model is used to compare the space debris flux rate of the object during the remaining lifetime estimated for the pre-EOL-manoeuvre and for the post-EOL-manoeuvre orbit. The study shows that, on average, the probability of collision can be significantly decreased by performing an EOL-manoeuver.