Climate Change Scenario in the Gujarat Region-Analyses based on LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator) Model

摘要

LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator) model was used to predict future climate change scenario over the Gujarat region. For this purpose, three locations of the region namely Ahmedabad, Deesa and Vadodara for which long period daily weather data (1969 - 2013) are available were chosen. The results indicated that LARS-WG model adequately predicted monthly rainfall means and standard deviations and they were in agreement with the observed series as reflected in the t and f-tests at 5% probability. The agreement was even better for maximum and minimum air temperatures at all the three locations of the Gujarat region. LARS-WG-predicted climate change scenario indicated an increasing trend in annual and seasonal rainfall at Ahmedabad and it would increase by 6.7% i.e. 54.3 mm (in 2020) to 18.2% i.e. 147.4 mm (in 2060) against the base period normal rainfall of 807.5 mm. Seasonal rainfall (monsoon) also has shown an increasing trend and it would increase by 5% (38.0 mm) in 2020 to 14.5% (110.8 mm) in 2060 against the average seasonal rainfall of 766.4 mm for the base period. At Deesa and Vadodara no trend has been observed in the annual and seasonal rainfall scenario. Standard weekly rainfall during the monsoon season has been found to increase at the start as well as in the middle of the season during 2014 to 2063 compared to the base period (1969-2013) at Deesa and Vadodara; however, no such changes have been observed for Ahmedabad. For all the three locations no trend has been observed in the annual average minimum and maximum temperature as well as in the summer maximum and winter minimum temperature.