Heads I Win, Tails You Lose: Uncertainty and the Protection of Biodiversity from Invasive Alien Species

摘要

Scientists anticipate that the problem of invasive alien species will be exacerbated by co-stressors of biodiversity, such as land clearing and climate change. One of the most effective means of regulating invasive alien species is to prevent their entry by implementing rigorous quarantine measures with strong border controls. Yet regulators face constant uncertainty, both with regard to the impact of invasive alien species on biodiversity, and also with the need to navigate a range of opinions on how best to deal with such uncertainty. These difficulties are illustrated by the differing approaches to uncertainty embodied by the World Trade Organization and the Convention on Biological Diversity. While the former emphasises the need for overcoming uncertainty, the latter also accommodates the need to manage uncertainty. This article explores the impasse resulting from these strategies and also analyses whether Australia's Weed Risk Assessment provides a potential solution. It is argued that the Weed Risk Assessment can establish 'plausible hypotheses' that channel into the precautionary approach, giving regulators the flexibility of managing uncertainty by implementing measures without the benefit of full and conclusive scientific evidence. What is not clear, however, is whether the information-based processes of the Weed Risk Assessment will satisfy the scientific certainty requirements of the World Trade Organization.