Asia's Latent Nuclear Powers: Japan, South Korea and Taiwan

摘要

Japan, South Korea, andTaiwan, the three Northeast Asian democracies assessed in this study, are latent nuclear powers, meaning they are capable of independently producing nuclear weapons within a few years but continue to refrain from doing so, writes Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.These states "are not suspected of nuclear proliferation" currently, but are studied in this report because of their advanced nuclear and dual-use industries, past exploration of weapons development, and desire to deter or defend against current and potential regional nuclear threats. Fitzpatrick predicts that the Asian states in question will not seek to acquire nuclear weapons, but evaluates circumstances that could push them in that direction. He maintains that most of the policies that will prevent proliferation in these states are "already in place, although they require constant attention." Fitzpatrick addresses some of the economic and political motives for maintaining nuclear latency, but states that the diplomatic and political fallout from "fulfilling the nuclear option" deters the three from pursuing a nuclear deterrent. He concludes by arguing that "a failure of the US to ensure effective deterrence would be the strongest stimulant to a proliferation cascade in Northeast Asia."