Dynamic evaluation on ecosystem service values of urban rivers and lakes: A case study of Nanchang City, China

摘要

Urban rivers and lakes play a significant role in providing ecosystem services, such as water supply, purification, nutrient retention, recreation, aesthetics, and more. However, there is no widely-accepted methodology for how to dynamically evaluate the ecosystem service values of urban rivers and lakes. Using data from survey and remote sensing of Nanchang City, China, this article constructs a conceptual framework based on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment to propose an integrated approach to evaluate the ecosystem service values of urban rivers and lakes. Furthermore, the article employs a GIS-based Markov chain model to predict the future probable distribution pattern of land use in Nanchang City, while it uses an artificial neural network model to simulate the potential changing of ecosystem service values. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment-based dynamic evaluation shows that in the first period of 1989-1999, provisioning services are dominant, followed by regulating services, supporting services and cultural services, while during the second period of 1999-2008, regulating services rank firstly in the total change of ecosystem service values, followed by supporting services, cultural services and provisioning services. The artificial neural network-based simulation indicates that the total will slightly increase in line with a small undulation in regulating service values, whilst the most changes brought by the provisioning services will be stable. This study is intended to serve as a tool to be used in decision making for proper and informed urban aquatic ecosystem management.