Do exchange-rate forecasters herd?

摘要

We used the foreign-exchange-rate forecasts of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) poll to analyse whether exchange-rate forecasters herd or anti-herd. Forecasters herd (anti-herd) if their forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. Upon implementing a robust empirical test developed by Bernhardt et al. (2006), we found that forecasters of the yen/ dollar and the dollar/euro exchange rates anti-herd.