P2P Loans and bank loans, the chicken and the egg, what causes what?: further evidence from a bootstrap panel granger causality test

摘要

This study attempts to re-investigate the causal link between bank loans and Peer-to-Peer (P2P) loans from China using data sets from eight areas (i.e., Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Hubei, Guangdong and Sichuan) over 2014M1-2016M4. We apply a bootstrap panel causality analysis that considers both cross-dependency and heterogeneity across cities. The empirical results indicate a unidirectional Granger causality running from P2P loans to bank loans for Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Shandong; feedback between P2P loans and bank loads for Jiangsu only and independence for the other three areas (i.e. Hubei, Guangdong and Sichuan).