Planning sustainable electric-power system with carbon emission abatement through CDM under uncertainty

摘要

In this study, a fuzzy-interval possibilistic programming (FIPP) method is developed for supporting sustainable electric power system (EPS) planning with carbon emission abatement under uncertainty. In FIPP, systematic uncertainties expressed as crisp intervals and fuzzy-boundary intervals can be effectively tackled. A FlPP-based clean development mechanism (FIPP-CDM) model is formulated for realizing CO_2-emission reduction and adjusting energy mix of Shenzhen's EPS with cost-effective and sustainable ways. Located in the south of Guangdong Province of southern China, the City of Shenzhen is one of fastest-growing cities in the world and has experienced high-speed economic development, accelerated industrialization process, and increased population growth. This is the first attempt to introduce CDM into Shenzhen's EPS with carbon emission abatement, while sustainable EPS's transition pathways are explored through FIPP-CDM model. Results demonstrate that (a) city's energy supply structure tends to the transition from coal-dominated into clean energy-dominated; (b) local renewable energy development is motivated through CDM projects; (c) city's power generation mix is diversified by wind power and solar power, while renewable energy accounts for 2.12%; (d) an additional capacity of [4.88, 5.82] GW of CDM projects is added, contributing to a [15.91, 17.22] % reduction in CO_2 emission of fossil fuel-fired power (i.e., corresponding to emission-reduction of [71.59, 85.51] million tonne). Decision alternatives under CDM can facilitate policy enactment of carbon-emission abatement, reformation of Shenzhen's EPS through market-oriented mechanism, as well as achievement of sustainable EPS planning.