Assessing the role of futures position substitutability in a monthly slaughtered pork factor demand by US processors: a cointegrated VAR model approach

摘要

This article combines cointegrated VAR modelling with basic neoclassical production microeconomics in a new way that tests for, and illuminates the empirical nature of, the monthly US pork processing sector's factor demand for slaughtered pork. Statistical evidence strongly suggests that the US pork processing sector has a Hicksian Cobb-Douglas slaughtered pork demand that arises from applying Shephard's lemma to the sector's cost function and that US pork processors treat slaughtered pork and related futures positions as close factor substitutes. In the wake of major and ongoing futures market events and trends, this study establishes and statistically tests a theoretical link between futures price movements and impacts on the underlying slaughtered pork market through monthly formation of US pork processors' factor demand for slaughtered pork. Evidence suggests that demand agents shift between demands for the two substitutes based on movements in the slaughter/futures price ratio that results in a market-stabilizing cushion against sharp pork price movements such as those observed in the late-1990s. Statistical and diagnostic evidence suggests that our modelled non-experimental data and estimated Hicksian demand that arose from the cointegrated VAR model's cointegration space met Haavelmo's setting of passive variables and associated ceteris paribus conditions.