Deriving advantage over a crisis by incorporating a new class of stochastic models for risk control operations

摘要

Modern complex organizations develop, investigate, and implement proactive risk management and crisis management programs by making extensive use of effective stochastic models. A stochastic model is formulated. Sufficient conditions of representing the formulated model as a random sum of random contractions and evaluating the corresponding characteristic function are also established. Interpretations of such a model in describing, investigating, and implementing risk frequency reduction and risk severity reduction operations are provided. Moreover, the formulated stochastic model and the conceptual framework of cindynics are used for investigating the evolution of a complex system going through a crisis generated by the occurrence of a major risk.