A systematic process for developing fire scenarios in risk assessment for nuclear power plants

摘要

In nuclear power plant fire probabilistic risk assessment (FPRA), numerous single-event fire scenarios are analyzed for risk quantification. The analysis results, however, are often subject to the allocation of project resource such as personnel, time and budget, and most importantly, the judgement of analysts. Through repetitive detailed simulation and quantification, the risk of a fire compartment can be modulated in accordance to the expectations of analysts, leading to the misleading risk significance of a fire compartment and weakened credibility of its risk ranking. In view of the unintentional bias in the conventional FPRA, this study aims at providing an objective, dependable risk ranking that reflects areas of high fire risks, and thereby the personnel in the plant can act accordingly. Here, a computational systematic procedure was constructed to consistently simulate the development of all fire scenarios. Through batch-processing, fire scenarios are disintegrated into parts for analysis and quantification. Importantly, details of a fire scenario are kept to the extent that an in-depth research on fire scenario quantification can be proceeded further in the future. (C) 2020 Published by Elsevier Ltd.