2001: An Economic Mix

摘要

The U.S. economy was in the fast lane over the last four years, with growth above 4 percent a year. In fact, last year's growth, estimated at 5.2 percent, was the strongest since 1984. After six interest-rate hikes since mid-1999 and a sharp upturn in world oil prices, the U.S. economy is showing signs of weakness. While the jobless rate, at 3.9 percent in October, was down again to the lowest level in three decades, gains in non-farm payrolls have slowed to less than 150,000 per month. As oil prices soared to more than $30 per barrel, up from an average of S17.50 per barrel in 1999, the inflation rate climbed to 3.5 percent by October, up a full percentage point from a year ago. On the bright side, the sharp upturn in oil prices had little impact on the core inflation — which excludes food and energy price increases. The concern of a slowing economy is more evident in the stock market prices and, in particular, the technology sector. This, in turn, has added to the fears that the economy may even go into a recession if the wealth effect kicks in, as some analysts fear.