Coffee: Mild Price Increases Over Coming Years

摘要

Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)rnCoffee prices will continue trading within a range over the comingrnweeks, subject to volatility in the Brazilian real (BRL). Prices havernoscillated between the USc110-130/lb in recent months as there havernbeen limited directional fundamental drivers, and we expect thisrnto continue. In particular, ongoing harvests in Colombia, Vietnamrnand East Africa have been largely unaffected by El Niño while thernBrazilian up-year harvest is currently commencing. Given theirrnstrong correlation, we believe coffee prices will move in line with BRL, which we ultimately expect to depreciate over the comingrnmonths (see 'BRL: Poor Fundamentals Will Come Back To ThernFore', March 31).