Can Schedule Reduction Initiatives Reduce Delay Volatility? A Case Study of Chicago O'Hare International Airport

摘要

Chicago O'Hare International Airport (ORD) represents a key node in the National Airspace System (NAS) network and a major hub for two of the largest U.S. carriers (American Airlines and United Airlines). Faced with growing passenger and airline discontent due to chronic delays and congestion, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) led the carriers serving ORD through a gradual schedule adjustment in 2004. A time series analytical technique called Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) is used to compare the volatility of delays for all arrivals and for all departures before and after the introduction of schedule reductions in 2004 at ORD. The purpose is not to explain why delays vary, but rather how they evolve. The empirical findings indicate that the volatility of delayed departures decreased after the introduction of schedule reductions, while the volatility of delayed arrivals was contained. Finally, Cox proportional hazards models show that the lack of available capacity, the volume of operations and longer taxi times were more likely to increase the odds of arrival and departure delays whether schedules were reduced or not.