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Debt Sustainability and the Ongoing Financial Crisis: The Case of IDA-only African Countries†

机译:债务可持续性与持续的金融危机:仅IDA的非洲国家为例†

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Abstract: The ongoing financial crisis has raised concerns in many circles about a potential future wave of sovereign defaults spreading among developing countries and, therefore, the need for additional rounds of debt relief in poor indebted countries. This paper addresses this issue for a group of 31 International Development Association (IDA)-only African countries, which are in a fragile debt situation. Using the most recent debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) undertaken for these countries by the World Bank and the IMF, this paper studies the potential adverse effect of the ongoing financial crisis on the countries’ debt burden indicators, as a function of the depth and length of the crisis. The latter is measured by the fall and the duration of such fall in exports revenues, and by the terms at which each country can obtain financing to muddle through the crisis period. The analysis underscores the importance of concessional financing for these countries, especially if the crisis proves to be a protracted one. This, because the likelihood of countries being able to muddle through the crisis without defaulting on their external debt decreases with the hardening of the financial conditions faced by them — alternatively, the size of the downsizing in domestic (fiscal) expenditures needed to ensure the service of their foreign debts increases with the tightening of financial conditions.
机译:摘要:持续的金融危机在许多领域引起了人们的关注,即未来潜在的主权债务违约浪潮将在发展中国家间蔓延,因此,需要在债务沉重的国家中进一步减免债务。本文针对仅由国际开发协会(IDA)组成的31个非洲国家,这些国家处于脆弱的债务状况中。利用世界银行和国际货币基金组织对这些国家进行的最新债务可持续性分析(DSA),本文研究了持续的金融危机对这些国家债务负担指标的潜在不利影响,其程度取决于深度和持续时间危机。后者的衡量标准是出口收入的下降和下降的持续时间,以及每个国家可以获得资金以度过危机时期的条件。分析强调了优惠融资对这些国家的重要性,尤其是在危机被证明是持久危机的情况下。这是因为,随着各国所面临的财务状况的恶化,各国能够避免陷入危机而又不拖欠外债的可能性降低了;或者,为确保提供服务而需要缩减国内(财政)支出的规模随着金融状况的收紧,他们的外债增加。

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