As we enter 2017 it is clear that the world is entering a new phase of uncertainty and change - and something that for many is without precedent in living memory. For civil aerospace this is particularly unsettling. Over the past 20 years it has shaken off 9/11, SARS, wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria, high oil prices, financial crashes (1998 and 2008) and rare but high-profile aviation accidents such as MH17 and MH370 to keep growing exponentially as the expanding global middle class gets a taste for air travel. This, in turn, has powered airliner production lines in Toulouse, Seattle, Canada, Brazil and elsewhere - along with a vast interconnected global supply chain that touches almost every nation on Earth. Despite social media, videoconferencing and now even virtual reality - there still is no substitute for being there in person. Yet aviation now, perhaps, faces its stiffest test of all, as protectionism looms and states retreat to national borders - following the political shift we saw in 2016 on both sides of the Atlantic. The slowing (or even reversal) of globalisation then has deep implications for commercial aviation - from lower GDP growth hitting discretionary spending and tourism, to punitive tariffs or trade war, or even supranational projects such as the EU's Single European Sky. However, it is important to remember that, even before the latest phase of 'globalisation' - aerospace and aviation has always been a global industry - with the most skilled pilots, designers and engineers finding work outside their place of birth. Connecting people and far-away places and bringing them closer is simply what aircraft do. As the most visible symbol of our global, interconnected modern society, mass air travel has helped power globalisation but it also means that commercial aviation arguably now has the most to lose.
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