Procedure and methodologies for managing the risk of space object reentry

摘要

This paper proposes a procedure for managing the risk of reentering space objects and risk assessment methodologies used for the process. The proposed procedure comprises three phases encompassing the whole reentry stages of space objects. Mathematical models for assessing the impact risk of the reentering space objects by utilizing the information available during different risk management phases and the recommended risk analysis results for public communication are presented. The concept of the conditional casualty expectation is proposed as the metric representing the reentry risk and the method to compute its profile is introduced. A case study on the risk management procedure with the dataset on an actual reentry event is conducted to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed procedure.