Simulating crop net primary production in China from 2000 to 2050 by linking the Crop-C model with a FGOALS’s model climate change scenario

摘要

Net primary production (NPP) of crop represents the capacity of sequestrating atmospheric CO2 in agro-ecosystem, and it plays an important role in terrestrial carbon cycling. By linking the Crop-C model with climate change scenario projected by a coupled GCM FGOALS via geographical information system (GIS) techniques, crop NPP in China was simulated from 2000 to 2050. The national averaged surface air temperature from FGOALS is projected to increase by 1.0°C over this period and the corresponding atmospheric CO2 concentration is 535 ppm by 2050 under the IPCC A1B scenario. With a spatial resolution of 10 × 10 km2, model simulation indicated that an annual average increase of 0.6 Tg C yr?1 (Tg=1012 g) would be possible under the A1B scenario. The NPP in the late 2040s would increase by 5% (30 Tg C) within the 98 × 106 hm2 cropland area in contrast with that in the early 2000s. A further investigation suggested that changes in the NPP would not be evenly distributed in China. A higher increase would occur in a majority of regions located in eastern and northwestern China, while a slight reduction would appear in Hebei and Tianjin in northern China. The spatial characteristics of the crop NPP change are attributed primarily to the uneven distribution of temperature change.