Ancient Jing De Zhen Dong He River Basin Kiln and Farmland Land-use Change Based on Cellular Automata and Cultural Algorithm Model

摘要

The aim of this study is to understand how farmland has transformed kiln in ancient Jing De Zhen Dong He River Basin; we created ancient virtual maps of study area and conducted a series of spatial analyses of the land-use pattern from the Yuan Dynasty to the Ming Dynasty. The results of the spatial analysis show that kiln can evolve from farmland, shrub, idle land etc. To simulate land-use change we developed a novel cellular automata model. Model parameters and neighborhood rules were obtained with the cellular automata model melt modified cultural algorithm. Virtual land-use maps from the Yuan Dynasty to the Ming Dynasty were used to implement the model with a time step of one year. Model performance was evaluated using Moran's I index estimation for selected landscape pattern indices. The optimized parameter set using Particle Swarm Optimization poorly simulated land-use change as compared to the optimized parameter set using Cultural Algorithm. In summary, our results proved that the model is also effective and feasible in simulating farmland and kiln land-use evolution in ancient times when Geographic Information and System information were lacking.