Economists have long had the reputation of, on the one hand, prevaricating, and on the other, of not being terribly accurate even when they do venture to try and predict the future. Forecasting is so difficult because it tries to predict human actions. I will avoid guessing what people might or might not do, and instead concentrate on something a bit more certain: demographics. A significant point in recent UK demographic history is the increase in population starting in the early 1960s. This baby boom lasted until the early 1970s, when a combination of oil crisis and stagnant economies brought it to an abrupt end. While this era may seem ancient history, the effects of the rapid drop-off in that baby boom remain with us still.
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