Structural equations modelling of drivers' speed selection using environmental, driver, and risk factors

摘要

Drivers' speed has significant implications on road users' safety in general, and particularly so if a crash occurs. This paper explores the influence of environmental and road characteristics, situational factors, and individual characteristics on drivers' observed speed selection in a simulator experiment. The paper presents a theoretical framework for drivers' speed selection, and applies structural equation modeling for the various factors examined. The simulator experiments collected data of 111 drivers driving in 4 different scenarios composed of 22 segments for each scenario. The dataset was analyzed in several resolutions: Driver level, Trip level, and Segment level. The three models revealed that gender, age, and driving frequency are all significant in determining drivers' perceptions and attitudes, which in turn influence speed selection. Situational factors such as traffic speed, enforcement, and time-saving-benefits are also related to speed selection, as well as infrastructure characteristics. These findings demonstrate that structural equations provide a flexible modeling tool able to concurrently analyze the variety of factors that relate to speed selection. As a result, Structural Equations Modeling provides more accurate and refined explanations for the combined effects of various factors on drivers' speed selection than previous research so far. These tools can be useful in developing speed management strategies to improve road safety.