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Attribution of extreme weather and climate‐related events

机译:极端天气和气候相关事件的归因

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摘要

Extreme weather and climate‐related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human‐induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:23–41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380For further resources related to this article, please visit the .
机译:根据定义,极端天气和气候相关事件很少发生在特定位置。因此,鉴于观测记录相对较短,要检测其发生的系统变化是一项挑战。但是,气候科学界之外的人显然对近期破坏性极端事件与人为引起的气候变化或自然气候变异性有关联的兴趣浓厚。事件归因研究试图确定人为气候变化在多大程度上改变了特定事件的可能性或严重性。他们显示出明显的证据表明,人类影响已增加了世界许多地区许多极端温暖的季节性温度的发生率并降低了极端寒冷的季节性温度的发生率。人类对极端降水事件,干旱和暴风雨可能性的影响的证据更为混杂。尽管事件归因科学近年来发展迅速,但事件的地理范围仍然很少,并且基于各个研究小组的兴趣和能力。业务事件归因的发展将允许比目前临时获得的归因评估更及时,更有条理。为了使事件归因评估最有用,需要对剩余的科学不确定性进行有力的评估,并清楚地传达结果。这就需要不断开发方法来评估事件归因结果的可靠性,并进一步开展工作以了解事件归因对利益相关者团体和决策者的潜在效用。 WIREs Clim Change 2016,7:23–41。 doi:10.1002 / wcc.380有关本文的更多资源,请访问。

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