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Projecting Changes in Expected Annual Damages From Riverine Flooding in the United States

机译:在美国因河水泛滥而造成的预期年度损失预测变化

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摘要

Inland flood risk in the United States is most often conveyed through maps of 1% annual exceedance probability (AEP) or “100‐year” floodplains. However, monetary damages from flooding arise from a full distribution of events, including floods both larger and smaller than the 1% AEP event. Furthermore, floodplains are not static, since both the frequency and magnitude of flooding are likely to change in a warming climate. We explored the implications of a changing frequency and magnitude of flooding across a wide spectrum of flood events, using a sample of 376 watersheds in the United States where floodplains from multiple recurrence intervals have been mapped. Using an inventory of assets within these mapped floodplains, we first calculated expected annual damages (EADs) from flooding in each watershed under baseline climate conditions. We find that the EAD is typically a factor of 5–7 higher than the expected damages from 100‐year events alone and that much of these damages are attributable to floods smaller than the 1% AEP event. The EAD from flooding typically increases by 25–50% under a 1 °C warming scenario and in most regions more than double under a 3 °C warming scenario. Further increases in EAD are not as pronounced beyond 3 °C warming, suggesting that most of the projected increases in flood damages will have already occurred, for most regions of the country, by that time. Adaptations that protect against today's 100‐year flood will have increasing benefits in a warmer climate by also protecting against more frequent, smaller events.
机译:在美国,最常见的内陆洪水风险是通过年度超标概率(AEP)为1%或“ 100年”洪泛区的地图来传达的。但是,洪水泛滥造成的金钱损失来自事件的全面分布,包括大于和小于1%AEP事件的洪水。此外,洪泛区不是一成不变的,因为洪水的频率和强度在变暖的气候中都可能发生变化。我们使用美国376个流域的样本进行了调查,探讨了洪水在各种洪水事件中发生频率和幅度的变化,其中已绘制了多个复发间隔的洪泛区。使用这些已绘制洪泛区中的资产清单,我们首先计算了在基线气候条件下每个流域的洪水造成的预期年度损失(EAD)。我们发现,EAD通常比仅来自100年事件的预期损失高5-7倍,并且这些损失中的很大一部分归因于小于1%AEP事件的洪水。在摄氏1度的情况下,洪水产生的EAD通常会增加25-50%,而在摄氏3度的情况下,大多数地区的EAD会增加两倍以上。 EAD的进一步升高并没有超过3°C的升温,这表明该国大部分地区到那时大多数洪水灾害的预计增加都已经发生。通过抵御更频繁,更小规模的事件,抵御当今100年洪水的适应措施将在温暖的气候中带来越来越多的收益。

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