You Cannot be Partially Pregnant: A Comparison of Divisible and Nondivisible Outcomes in Delay and Probability Discounting Studies

摘要

Research by The Psychological Record, 64(3), 433–440. doi:10.1007/s40732-014-0052-9, (2014) demonstrated the novel finding that the magnitude effect for medical outcomes does not reverse across delay and probability discounting as it does for monetary outcomes. We suggest that a possible reason for the lack of a reverse magnitude effect in nonmonetary outcomes is incomparable divisibility of discounted alternatives.To test whether the lack of a reverse magnitude effect in probability discounting of medical outcomes is due to incomparable divisibility of treatment effects, 4 studies were conducted. In the replication study, the effect observed by The Psychological Record, 64(3), 433–440. doi:10.1007/s40732-014-0052-9, (2014) was marginally not significant, although it was directionally consistent with their prediction of steeper discounting of small medical outcomes (as compared to large, defined as brain cancer) both in time and probability discounting. Our manipulation by substituting a divisible outcome (body paralysis) for an indivisible one (brain cancer) did not, however, bring expected results. We discuss the explanations and possible implications of introduced division for divisible and nondivisible medical outcomes.