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Network analysis of wildfire transmission and implications for risk governance

机译:野火传播的网络分析及其对风险治理的意义

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摘要

We characterized wildfire transmission and exposure within a matrix of large land tenures (federal, state, and private) surrounding 56 communities within a 3.3 million ha fire prone region of central Oregon US. Wildfire simulation and network analysis were used to quantify the exchange of fire among land tenures and communities and analyze the relative contributions of human versus natural ignitions to wildfire exposure. Among the land tenures examined, the area burned by incoming fires averaged 57% of the total burned area. Community exposure from incoming fires ignited on surrounding land tenures accounted for 67% of the total area burned. The number of land tenures contributing wildfire to individual communities and surrounding wildland urban interface (WUI) varied from 3 to 20. Community firesheds, i.e. the area where ignitions can spawn fires that can burn into the WUI, covered 40% of the landscape, and were 5.5 times larger than the combined area of the community core and WUI. For the major land tenures within the study area, the amount of incoming versus outgoing fire was relatively constant, with some exceptions. The study provides a multi-scale characterization of wildfire networks within a large, mixed tenure and fire prone landscape, and illustrates the connectivity of risk between communities and the surrounding wildlands. We use the findings to discuss how scale mismatches in local wildfire governance result from disconnected planning systems and disparate fire management objectives among the large landowners (federal, state, private) and local communities. Local and regional risk planning processes can adopt our concepts and methods to better define and map the scale of wildfire risk from large fire events and incorporate wildfire network and connectivity concepts into risk assessments.
机译:我们在美国中部俄勒冈州330万公顷火灾频发地区中的56个社区的大片土地使用权(联邦,州和私人)矩阵中描述了野火的传播和暴露情况。使用野火模拟和网络分析来量化土地权属和社区之间的火灾交换,并分析人为点火和自然点火对野火暴露的相对贡献。在所审查的土地所有制中,来袭大火燃烧的面积平均占总燃烧面积的57%。周围土地使用权引发的大火引起的社区暴露占总燃烧面积的67%。向各个社区和周围的荒地城市界面(WUI)造成野火的土地保有权数量从3到20不等。社区火场,即引燃可产生可燃烧到WUI的火的区域,覆盖了40%的景观,以及是社区核心和WUI的总面积的5.5倍。对于研究区域内的主要土地使用权,除某些情况外,来往火灾与外来火灾的数量相对恒定。这项研究提供了在大面积,混合土地使用权和火灾易发地区的野火网络的多尺度特征,并说明了社区与周围荒地之间风险的连通性。我们使用这些发现来讨论地方野火治理的规模失配是如何由大型土地所有者(联邦,州,私人)和地方社区之间不连续的计划系统和不同的火灾管理目标导致的。地方和区域风险规划流程可以采用我们的概念和方法,以更好地定义和绘制大型火灾事件中的野火风险规模,并将野火网络和连通性概念纳入风险评估中。

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