Escape enables prey to avoid an approaching predator. The escape decision-making process has traditionally been interpreted using theoretical models that consider ultimate explanations based on the cost/benefit paradigm. Ultimate approaches, however, suffer from inseparable extra-assumptions due to an inability to accurately parameterize the model's variables and their interactive relationships. In this study, we propose a mathematical model that uses intensity of predator-mediated visual stimuli as a basic cue for the escape response. We consider looming stimuli (i.e. expanding retinal image of the moving predator) as a cue to flight initiation distance (FID; distance at which escape begins) of incubating Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos). We then examine the relationship between FID, vegetation cover and directness of predator trajectory, and fit the resultant model to experimental data. As predicted by the model, vegetation concealment and directness of predator trajectory interact, with FID decreasing with increased concealment during a direct approach toward prey, but not during a tangential approach. Thus, we show that a simple proximate expectation, which involves only visual processing of a moving predator, may explain interactive effects of environmental and predator-induced variables on an escape response. We assume that our proximate approach, which offers a plausible and parsimonious explanation for variation in FID, may serve as an evolutionary background for traditional, ultimate explanations and should be incorporated into interpretation of escape behavior.
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