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Moment Approximation of Infection Dynamics in a Population of Moving Hosts

机译:移动宿主群体中感染动力学的矩逼近

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摘要

The modelling of contact processes between hosts is of key importance in epidemiology. Current studies have mainly focused on networks with stationary structures, although we know these structures to be dynamic with continuous appearance and disappearance of links over time. In the case of moving individuals, the contact network cannot be established. Individual-based models (IBMs) can simulate the individual behaviours involved in the contact process. However, with very large populations, they can be hard to simulate and study due to the computational costs. We use the moment approximation (MA) method to approximate a stochastic IBM with an aggregated deterministic model. We illustrate the method with an application in animal epidemiology: the spread of the highly pathogenic virus H5N1 of avian influenza in a poultry flock. The MA method is explained in a didactic way so that it can be reused and extended. We compare the simulation results of three models: 1. an IBM, 2. a MA, and 3. a mean-field (MF). The results show a close agreement between the MA model and the IBM. They highlight the importance for the models to capture the displacement behaviours and the contact processes in the study of disease spread. We also illustrate an original way of using different models of the same system to learn more about the system itself, and about the representation we build of it.
机译:宿主之间接触过程的建模在流行病学中至关重要。当前的研究主要集中在具有固定结构的网络上,尽管我们知道这些结构是动态的,随着时间的流逝,链接不断出现和消失。在移动个人的情况下,无法建立联系网络。基于个人的模型(IBM)可以模拟联系过程中涉及的个人行为。但是,由于人口众多,由于计算量大,可能难以模拟和研究。我们使用矩逼近(MA)方法通过聚合确定性模型来逼​​近随机IBM。我们举例说明该方法在动物流行病学中的应用:禽流感的高致病性病毒H5N1在禽群中的传播。 MA方法已通过讲解的方式进行了说明,以便可以重用和扩展。我们比较了三种模型的仿真结果:1. IBM,2。MA和3.平均场(MF)。结果表明,MA模型与IBM之间有着密切的协议。他们强调了模型在捕捉疾病传播过程中捕获位移行为和接触过程的重要性。我们还说明了使用同一系统的不同模型来了解有关系统本身以及我们所构建的表示的更多信息的原始方式。

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