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Normalized Multivariate Time Series Causality Analysis and Causal Graph Reconstruction

机译:归一化多变量时间序列因果关系分析和因果图重建

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摘要

Causality analysis is an important problem lying at the heart of science, and is of particular importance in data science and machine learning. An endeavor during the past 16 years viewing causality as a real physical notion so as to formulate it from first principles, however, seems to have gone unnoticed. This study introduces to the community this line of work, with a long-due generalization of the information flow-based bivariate time series causal inference to multivariate series, based on the recent advance in theoretical development. The resulting formula is transparent, and can be implemented as a computationally very efficient algorithm for application. It can be normalized and tested for statistical significance. Different from the previous work along this line where only information flows are estimated, here an algorithm is also implemented to quantify the influence of a unit to itself. While this forms a challenge in some causal inferences, here it comes naturally, and hence the identification of self-loops in a causal graph is fulfilled automatically as the causalities along edges are inferred. To demonstrate the power of the approach, presented here are two applications in extreme situations. The first is a network of multivariate processes buried in heavy noises (with the noise-to-signal ratio exceeding 100), and the second a network with nearly synchronized chaotic oscillators. In both graphs, confounding processes exist. While it seems to be a challenge to reconstruct from given series these causal graphs, an easy application of the algorithm immediately reveals the desideratum. Particularly, the confounding processes have been accurately differentiated. Considering the surge of interest in the community, this study is very timely.
机译:因果区分析是科学核心的重要问题,对数据科学和机器学习特别重要。然而,努力在过去的16年中观看因果关系作为一个真正的身体概念,以便从第一个原则制定它,似乎已经被忽视了。本研究向社区介绍了这一行的工作,基于信息流量的双变量时间序列因果推理到多元系列的长期概括,基于最近的理论发展的进步。得到的公式是透明的,并且可以实现为计算非常有效的应用算法。它可以是归一化和测试的统计显着性。与估计信息流估计的该线的先前工作不同,这里还实现了一种算法以量化单元对自身的影响。虽然这在一些因果推论中形成了挑战,但在这里它自然而然,因此随着边缘的因果区,自动地满足了因果图中的自我环路的识别。为了展示这种方法的力量,这里提出的是极端情况下的两个应用。首先是在大噪声中掩埋的多变量过程的网络(具有超过100的噪声到信号比),以及具有几乎同步的混沌振荡器的第二网络。在两个图中,存在混杂过程。虽然从给定系列的这些因果图重建似乎是一个挑战,但易于应用算法立即显示出缺陷。特别是,混杂过程已经精确分化。考虑到社区兴趣的激增,这项研究非常及时。

著录项

  • 期刊名称 Entropy
  • 作者

    X. San Liang;

  • 作者单位
  • 年(卷),期 2021(23),6
  • 年度 2021
  • 页码 679
  • 总页数 14
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    机译:因果图重建;信息流程;时间序列;同步;

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