Risk of Exposure to COVID-19: Visit Duration Data Can Inform Our Daily Activities Choices: An Epidemiological Investigation Using Community Mobility Data from the Metropolitan Area of Genoa Italy

摘要

COVID-19 spreads mainly among people who are in close contact. Policymakers mostly resorted to normative measures to limit close contacts and impose social distancing. Our study aimed to estimate the risk of exposure to COVID-19 by location and activity in crowded metropolitan areas. The risk of exposure to COVID-19 was defined as the product of crowding (people within a six feet distance) and exposure duration (fraction of 15 min). Our epidemiological investigation used aggregated and anonymized mobility data from Google Maps to estimate the visit duration. We collected visit duration data for 561 premises in the metropolitan area of Genoa, Italy from October 2020 to January 2021. The sample was then clustered into 14 everyday activities, from grocery shopping to the post office. Crowding data by activity were obtained from pre-existing building norms and new government measures to contain the pandemic. The study found significant variance in the risk of exposure to COVID-19 among activities and, for the same activity, among locations. The empirical determination of the risk of exposure to COVID-19 can inform national and local public health policies to contain the pandemic’s diffusion. Its simple numerical form can help policymakers effectively communicate difficult decisions affecting our daily lives. Most importantly, risk data by location can help us rethink our daily routine and make informed, responsible choices when we decide to go out.