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Risk estimation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from bluetooth low energy measurements

机译:蓝牙低能测量中SARS-COV-2传输风险估算

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摘要

a Typical infection scenario in a public space (e.g. a supermarket), where close contact between an infected and a contact person is established over a long enough period of time. b An epidemiological risk function translates a time series of contact distances into infectiousness scores, which are then used to label the encounters in the training data set. c Example of a raw RSSI time series of the BLE signal, as well a corresponding contact distances. d We train a linear regression model to predict the infectiousness scores obtained from a given risk model. The linear regression receives as input a list of features, which were derived from the raw RSSI data. e The predictions of the linear regression model correlate strongly with the ground truth risk (up to 0.95 for the linear risk model). For a fixed critical risk threshold η the approach achieves high true positive rates with very few false classifications. f To this day only little is known about spreading behaviour of SARS-Cov-2. In this work, we calibrated our epidemiological models according to the latest recommendations of epidemiologists16. After large-scale deployment of proximity tracing technologies, it will be possible to compare the predicted infection events with the actually measured ones. This may help to refine epidemiological models.
机译:在公共空间(例如超市)中的典型感染场景,其中受感染和联系人之间的密切接触是在足够长的时间内建立的。 b流行病学风险功能将一个时间序列的接触距离转化为传染性分数,然后用于在训练数据集中标记遇到的遇到。 CR原RSSI时间序列的示例,相应的触点距离。 D我们训练线性回归模型以预测从给定的风险模型获得的传染病分数。线性回归接收为输入的特征列表,其来自原始RSSI数据。 e对线性回归模型的预测强烈地与地面真理风险(线性风险模型高达0.95)。对于固定的临界风险阈值η,该方法通过极少的错误分类实现了高真正的阳性率。 F至今只有几乎令人满意的SARS-COV-2传播行为。在这项工作中,我们根据流行病学家16的最新建议校准了我们的流行病学模型。经过大规模部署邻近跟踪技术,可以将预测的感染事件与实际测量的追踪技术进行比较。这可能有助于改进流行病学模型。

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