Multivariate Geostatistical Modeling and Risk Analysis of Beach Litter: A Case Study of Playa Blanca Beach Chile

摘要

Beach litter is a worldwide problem that has several negative effects. A first step in preventing an environmental hazard is to determine and model the level of contamination. In this paper, geostatistical simulation is used to model two main forms of beach litter (cigarette butts and sharp items) in one of the most contaminated beaches in Antofagasta, Chile. A hundred realizations of cigarette butts and broken glass are generated to emulate their joint spatial distribution. The simulation results are used to classify the beach into different areas with respect to the risk of injury by broken glass and the level of contamination by cigarette butts. The models obtained can be used by local authorities in beach clean-up programs and by visitors to beaches in choosing the safest and cleanest areas. The results demonstrate the capability of geostatistical simulation algorithms to model different types of beach litter.