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Climate impact on spreading of airborne infectious diseases

机译:气候对空气传播传染病传播的影响

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摘要

In this study we combined a wide range of data sets to simulate the outbreak of an airborne infectious disease that is directly transmitted from human to human. The basis is a complex network whose structures are inspired by global air traffic data (from openflights.org) containing information about airports, airport locations, direct flight connections and airplane types. Disease spreading inside every node is realized with a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model. Disease transmission rates in our model are depending on the climate environment and therefore vary in time and from node to node. To implement the correlation between water vapor pressure and influenza transmission rate [J. Shaman, M. Kohn, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. , 3243 (2009)], we use global available climate reanalysis data (WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim, WFDEI). During our sensitivity analysis we found that disease spreading dynamics are strongly depending on network properties, the climatic environment of the epidemic outbreak location, and the season during the year in which the outbreak is happening.
机译:在这项研究中,我们结合了广泛的数据集来模拟人与人之间直接传播的空气传播传染病的爆发。其基础是一个复杂的网络,其结构受全球空中交通数据(来自openflights.org)的启发,该数据包含有关机场,机场位置,直接航班连接和飞机类型的信息。通过易感暴露-感染-恢复(SEIR)分区模型可实现疾病在每个节点内的传播。我们模型中的疾病传播率取决于气候环境,因此时间随节点而变化。实现水蒸气压与流感传播率之间的相关性[J.萨满,M。Kohn,Proc。 Natl。学院科学,3243(2009)],我们使用全球可用的气候再分析数据(WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim,WFDEI)。在我们的敏感性分析中,我们发现疾病的传播动态很大程度上取决于网络特性,疫情暴发地点的气候环境以及暴发发生的年份。

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