Prediction of Sea Level Nonlinear Trends around Shandong Peninsula from Satellite Altimetry

摘要

Sea level change is a key indicator of climate change, and the prediction of sea level rise is one of most important scientific issues. In this paper, the gridded sea level anomaly (SLA) data from satellite altimetry are used to analyze the sea level variations around Shandong Peninsula from 1993 to 2016. Based on the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (CEEMD) method and Radial Basis Function (RBF) network, the paper proposes an improved sea level multi-scale prediction approach, namely, CEEMD-RBF combined model. Firstly, the multi-scale frequency oscillatory modes (intrinsic mode functions (IMFs)) representing different oceanic processes are extracted by CEEMD from the highest frequency to the lowest frequency oscillating mode. Secondly, RBF network is used to establish prediction models for various IMF components to predict their future trends, and each IMF is used as an input factor of the RBF network separately. Finally, the prediction results of each IMF component with RBF network are reconstructed to obtain the final predictions of sea level anomalies. The results shows that CEEMD is particularly suitable for analyzing nonlinear and non-stationary time series and RBF network is applicable for regional sea level prediction at different scales.