Assessing the exposure of forest habitat types to projected climate change—Implications for Bavarian protected areas

摘要

Due to their longevity and structure, forest ecosystems are particularly affected by climate change with consequences for their biodiversity, functioning, and services to mankind. In the European Union (EU), natural and seminatural forests are protected by the Habitats Directive and the Natura 2000 network. This study aimed to assess the exposure of three legally defined forest habitat types to climate change, namely (a) forests of slopes, screes, and ravines (9180*), (b) bog woodlands (91D0*), and (c) alluvial forests with and (91E0*). We analyzed possible changes in their Bavarian distribution, including their potential future coverage by Natura 2000 sites. We hypothesized that protected areas (PAs) with larger elevational ranges will remain suitable for the forests as they allow for altitudinal distribution shifts.