A sequential conditional probability ratio test procedure for comparing diagnostic tests

摘要

In this paper, we derive sequential conditional probability ratio tests to compare diagnostic tests without distributional assumptions on test results. The test statistics in our method are nonparametric weighted areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves. By using the new method, the decision of stopping the diagnostic trial early is unlikely to be reversed should the trials continue to the planned end. The conservatism reflected in this approach to have more conservative stopping boundaries during the course of the trial is especially appealing for diagnostic trials since the end point is not death. In addition, the maximum sample size of our method is not greater than a fixed sample test with similar power functions. Simulation studies are performed to evaluate the properties of the proposed sequential procedure. We illustrate the method using data from a thoracic aorta imaging study.