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Nonparametric Bayesian Segmentation of a Multivariate Inhomogeneous Space-Time Poisson Process

机译:多元不均匀时空泊松过程的非参数贝叶斯分割

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摘要

A nonparametric Bayesian model is proposed for segmenting time-evolving multivariate spatial point process data. An inhomogeneous Poisson process is assumed, with a logistic stick-breaking process (LSBP) used to encourage piecewise-constant spatial Poisson intensities. The LSBP explicitly favors spatially contiguous segments, and infers the number of segments based on the observed data. The temporal dynamics of the segmentation and of the Poisson intensities are modeled with exponential correlation in time, implemented in the form of a first-order autoregressive model for uniformly sampled discrete data, and via a Gaussian process with an exponential kernel for general temporal sampling. We consider and compare two different inference techniques: a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, which has relatively high computational complexity; and an approximate and efficient variational Bayesian analysis. The model is demonstrated with a simulated example and a real example of space-time crime events in Cincinnati, Ohio, USA.
机译:提出了一种非参数贝叶斯模型对时间演化多元空间点过程数据进行分割。假定了不均匀的泊松过程,并使用逻辑对折断裂过程(LSBP)来促进分段恒定的空间泊松强度。 LSBP明确支持空间连续的段,并根据观察到的数据推断段的数量。分段时间和泊松强度的时间动态建模具有时间上的指数相关性,以一阶自回归模型的形式实现,用于均匀采样的离散数据,并通过具有指数核的高斯过程进行通用时间采样。我们考虑并比较了两种不同的推理技术:马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛采样器,具有相对较高的计算复杂度;以及近似有效的变分贝叶斯分析。通过美国俄亥俄州辛辛那提市的时空犯罪事件的模拟示例和真实示例演示了该模型。

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