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Response-Adaptive Decision-Theoretic Trial Design: Operating Characteristics and Ethics

机译:响应自适应决策理论试验设计:运营特征和伦理

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摘要

Adaptive randomization is used in clinical trials to increase statistical efficiency. In addition, some clinicians and researchers believe that using adaptive randomization leads necessarily to more ethical treatment of subjects in a trial. We develop Bayesian, decision-theoretic, clinical trial designs with response-adaptive randomization and a primary goal of estimating treatment effect, and then contrast these designs with designs that also include in their loss function a cost for poor subject outcome. When the loss function did not incorporate a cost for poor subject outcome, the gains in efficiency from response-adaptive randomization were accompanied by ethically concerning subject allocations. Conversely, including a cost for poor subject outcome demonstrated a more acceptable balance between the competing needs in the trial. A subsequent, parallel set of trials designed to control explicitly type I and II error rates showed that much of the improvement achieved through modification of the loss function was essentially negated. Therefore, gains in efficiency from the use of a decision-theoretic, response-adaptive design using adaptive randomization may only be assumed to apply to those goals which are explicitly included in the loss function. Trial goals, including ethical ones, which do not appear in the loss function are ignored and may even be compromised; it is thus inappropriate to assume that all adaptive trials are necessarily more ethical. Controlling type I and II error rates largely negates the benefit of including competing needs in favor of the goal of parameter estimation.
机译:适应性随机化用于临床试验以提高统计效率。另外,一些临床医生和研究人员认为,使用适应性随机化必然导致试验中受试者的治疗更具伦理意义。我们开发了具有响应自适应随机性和估计治疗效果的主要目标的贝叶斯决策理论临床试验设计,然后将这些设计与还包括其损失功能的设计进行了对比,这些设计在受试者中具有较差的受试者结局。当损失函数未包含不良受试者结果的成本时,响应自适应随机性带来的效率提高会伴随着伦理上有关受试者分配的问题。相反,包括较差的受试者结果费用在内,证明了试验中竞争需求之间的平衡更为可接受。随后进行的一系列并行试验(旨在明确控制I型和II型错误率)表明,通过修改损失函数实现的许多改进实际上都被否定了。因此,可以认为使用自适应随机化的决策理论,响应自适应设计带来的效率提升仅适用于明确包含在损失函数中的那些目标。没有出现在损失函数中的包括道德目标在内的试验目标将被忽略,甚至可能受到损害;因此,认为所有适应性试验必定更具道德性是不合适的。控制I型和II型错误率在很大程度上抵消了为了满足参数估计的目的而将竞争需求包括在内的好处。

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