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Quantifying Human Mobility Perturbation and Resilience in Hurricane Sandy

机译:量化人类在飓风桑迪中的摄动和复原力

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摘要

Human mobility is influenced by environmental change and natural disasters. Researchers have used trip distance distribution, radius of gyration of movements, and individuals' visited locations to understand and capture human mobility patterns and trajectories. However, our knowledge of human movements during natural disasters is limited owing to both a lack of empirical data and the low precision of available data. Here, we studied human mobility using high-resolution movement data from individuals in New York City during and for several days after Hurricane Sandy in 2012. We found the human movements followed truncated power-law distributions during and after Hurricane Sandy, although the β value was noticeably larger during the first 24 hours after the storm struck. Also, we examined two parameters: the center of mass and the radius of gyration of each individual's movements. We found that their values during perturbation states and steady states are highly correlated, suggesting human mobility data obtained in steady states can possibly predict the perturbation state. Our results demonstrate that human movement trajectories experienced significant perturbations during hurricanes, but also exhibited high resilience. We expect the study will stimulate future research on the perturbation and inherent resilience of human mobility under the influence of hurricanes. For example, mobility patterns in coastal urban areas could be examined as hurricanes approach, gain or dissipate in strength, and as the path of the storm changes. Understanding nuances of human mobility under the influence of such disasters will enable more effective evacuation, emergency response planning and development of strategies and policies to reduce fatality, injury, and economic loss.
机译:人口流动受到环境变化和自然灾害的影响。研究人员利用行程距离分布,运动的回转半径以及个人走访的位置来理解和捕捉人类的活动方式和轨迹。但是,由于缺乏经验数据和可用数据的精度低,我们对自然灾害期间人类活动的了解有限。在这里,我们使用来自2012年飓风桑迪期间和之后几天的纽约市个体的高分辨率运动数据研究了人类的机动性。我们发现,人类运动遵循飓风桑迪期间和之后的截断幂律分布,尽管β值暴风雨来袭后的头24小时内,风速明显变大。此外,我们检查了两个参数:每个人的运动的质心和回转半径。我们发现,它们在摄动状态和稳态期间的值高度相关,这表明在稳态下获得的人体活动性数据可以预测摄动状态。我们的结果表明,人类运动的轨迹在飓风中经历了明显的扰动,但同时也表现出很高的弹性。我们希望这项研究将激发未来关于飓风影响下人类活动的摄动和固有复原力的研究。例如,可以在飓风来袭,强度增加或消散以及风暴路径改变时检查沿海城市地区的交通方式。了解在此类灾难的影响下人员流动的细微差别将有助于更有效的疏散,应急计划以及制定减少死亡,伤害和经济损失的战略和政策。

著录项

  • 期刊名称 other
  • 作者

    Qi Wang; John E. Taylor;

  • 作者单位
  • 年(卷),期 -1(9),11
  • 年度 -1
  • 页码 e112608
  • 总页数 5
  • 原文格式 PDF
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