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Placing Local Aggregations in a Larger-Scale Context: Hierarchical Modeling of Black-Footed Albatross Dispersion

机译:在更大范围内放置局部聚集:黑脚信天翁分散体的分层建模

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摘要

At-sea surveys facilitate the study of the distribution and abundance of marine birds along standardized transects, in relation to changes in the local environmental conditions and large-scale oceanographic forcing. We analyzed the form and the intensity of black-footed albatross (Phoebastria nigripes: BFAL) spatial dispersion off central California, using five years (2004–2008) of vessel-based surveys of seven replicated survey lines. We related BFAL patchiness to local, regional and basin-wide oceanographic variability using two complementary approaches: a hypothesis-based model and an exploratory analysis. The former tested the strength and sign of hypothesized BFAL responses to environmental variability, within a hierarchical atmosphere—ocean context. The latter explored BFAL cross-correlations with atmospheric / oceanographic variables. While albatross dispersion was not significantly explained by the hierarchical model, the exploratory analysis revealed that aggregations were influenced by static (latitude, depth) and dynamic (wind speed, upwelling) environmental variables. Moreover, the largest BFAL patches occurred along the survey lines with the highest densities, and in association with shallow banks. In turn, the highest BFAL densities occurred during periods of negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation index values and low atmospheric pressure. The exploratory analyses suggest that BFAL dispersion is influenced by basin-wide, regional-scale and local environmental variability. Furthermore, the hypothesis-based model highlights that BFAL do not respond to oceanographic variability in a hierarchical fashion. Instead, their distributions shift more strongly in response to large-scale ocean—atmosphere forcing. Thus, interpreting local changes in BFAL abundance and dispersion requires considering diverse environmental forcing operating at multiple scales.
机译:海上调查有助于研究与当地环境条件的变化和大规模海洋强迫有关的标准化样带上海鸟的分布和数量。我们使用五年(2004-2008年)对七条重复测量线进行的基于船只的调查,分析了加州中部黑足信天翁(Phoebastria nigripes:BFAL)空间分散的形式和强度。我们使用两种补充方法将BFAL斑块与局部,区域和流域范围的海洋学变化联系起来:基于假设的模型和探索性分析。前者在分层的大气-海洋环境中测试了假设的BFAL对环境变异性的反应的强度和信号。后者探讨了BFAL与大气/海洋学变量之间的相互关系。虽然信天翁的散布没有通过层次模型得到显着解释,但探索性分析显示,聚集受到静态(纬度,深度)和动态(风速,上升流)环境变量的影响。此外,最大的BFAL斑块出现在密度最高的调查线上,并与浅滩有关。反过来,最高的BFAL密度发生在负太平洋年代际振荡指数值和大气压低的时期。探索性分析表明,BFAL扩散受流域范围,区域规模和局部环境变化的影响。此外,基于假设的模型突出表明BFAL不会以分层方式响应海洋变化。取而代之的是,它们的分布响应于大规模海洋-大气强迫而更加强烈地变化。因此,解释BFAL丰度和分散度的局部变化需要考虑在多个规模上运行的各种环境强迫。

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