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The Hunt Opinion Model—An Agent Based Approach to Recurring Fashion Cycles

机译:Hunt Opinion模型-基于Agent的重复时尚周期方法

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摘要

We study a simple agent-based model of the recurring fashion cycles in the society that consists of two interacting communities: “snobs” and “followers” (or “opinion hunters”, hence the name of the model). Followers conform to all other individuals, whereas snobs conform only to their own group and anticonform to the other. The model allows to examine the role of the social structure, i.e. the influence of the number of inter-links between the two communities, as well as the role of the stability of links. The latter is accomplished by considering two versions of the same model—quenched (parameterized by fraction L of fixed inter-links) and annealed (parameterized by probability p that a given inter-link exists). Using Monte Carlo simulations and analytical treatment (the latter only for the annealed model), we show that there is a critical fraction of inter-links, above which recurring cycles occur. For p ≤ 0.5 we derive a relation between parameters L and p that allows to compare both models and show that the critical value of inter-connections, p*, is the same for both versions of the model (annealed and quenched) but the period of a fashion cycle is shorter for the quenched model. Near the critical point, the cycles are irregular and a change of fashion is difficult to predict. For the annealed model we also provide a deeper theoretical analysis. We conjecture on topological grounds that the so-called saddle node heteroclinic bifurcation appears at p*. For p ≥ 0.5 we show analytically the existence of the second critical value of p, for which the system undergoes Hopf’s bifurcation.
机译:我们研究了社会中重复出现的时尚周期的基于代理的简单模型,该模型由两个相互作用的社区组成:“突击者”和“追随者”(或“观点猎手”,因此,该模型的名称)。追随者与所有其他个人都相符,而势利者仅与他们自己的团体相符,而与其他人反相符。该模型允许检查社会结构的作用,即两个社区之间相互联系的数量的影响以及联系的稳定性。后者是通过考虑同一模型的两个版本来实现的-淬火(参数化为固定链接的分数L)和退火(参数化为存在给定链接的概率p)。使用蒙特卡洛模拟和分析处理(后者仅适用于退火模型),我们显示出存在互连的关键部分,在该部分之上会发生重复循环。对于p≤0.5,我们得出参数L和p之间的关系,该关系允许比较两个模型,并表明互连的临界值p *对于模型的两个版本(退火和淬火)都相同,但是周期为淬火模型的时尚周期较短。在临界点附近,周期是不规则的,时尚的变化很难预测。对于退火模型,我们还提供了更深入的理论分析。我们以拓扑为基础推测,所谓的鞍结异宿分叉出现在p *处。当p≥0.5时,我们分析地表明存在第二个p临界值,为此系统经历了Hopf分叉。

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