Estimating decades-long trends in petroleum field energy return on investment (EROI) with an engineering-based model

摘要

This paper estimates changes in the energy return on investment (EROI) for five large petroleum fields over time using the Oil Production Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimator (OPGEE). The modeled fields include Cantarell (Mexico), Forties (U.K.), Midway-Sunset (U.S.), Prudhoe Bay (U.S.), and Wilmington (U.S.). Data on field properties and production/processing parameters were obtained from a combination of government and technical literature sources. Key areas of uncertainty include details of the oil and gas surface processing schemes. We aim to explore how long-term trends in depletion at major petroleum fields change the effective energetic productivity of petroleum extraction. Four EROI ratios are estimated for each field as follows: The net energy ratio (NER) and external energy ratio (EER) are calculated, each using two measures of energy outputs, (1) oil-only and (2) all energy outputs. In all cases, engineering estimates of inputs are used rather than expenditure-based estimates (including off-site indirect energy use and embodied energy). All fields display significant declines in NER over the modeling period driven by a combination of (1) reduced petroleum production and (2) increased energy expenditures on recovery methods such as the injection of water, steam, or gas. The fields studied had NER reductions ranging from 46% to 88% over the modeling periods (accounting for all energy outputs). The reasons for declines in EROI differ by field. Midway-Sunset experienced a 5-fold increase in steam injected per barrel of oil produced. In contrast, Prudhoe Bay has experienced nearly a 30-fold increase in amount of gas processed and reinjected per unit of oil produced. In contrast, EER estimates are subject to greater variability and uncertainty due to the relatively small magnitude of external energy investments in most cases.