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The evolving cobweb of relations among partially rational investors

机译:部分理性投资者之间不断发展的蜘蛛网

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摘要

To overcome the limitations of neoclassical economics, researchers have leveraged tools of statistical physics to build novel theories. The idea was to elucidate the macroscopic features of financial markets from the interaction of its microscopic constituents, the investors. In this framework, the model of the financial agents has been kept separate from that of their interaction. Here, instead, we explore the possibility of letting the interaction topology emerge from the model of the agents’ behavior. Then, we investigate how the emerging cobweb of relationship affects the overall market dynamics. To this aim, we leverage tools from complex systems analysis and nonlinear dynamics, and model the network of mutual influence as the output of a dynamical system describing the edge evolution. In this work, the driver of the link evolution is the relative reputation between possibly coupled agents. The reputation is built differently depending on the extent of rationality of the investors. The continuous edge activation or deactivation induces the emergence of leaders and of peculiar network structures, typical of real influence networks. The subsequent impact on the market dynamics is investigated through extensive numerical simulations in selected scenarios populated by partially rational investors.
机译:为了克服新古典经济学的局限性,研究人员利用统计物理学的工具来建立新颖的理论。其想法是从微观市场成分,投资者之间的相互作用中阐明金融市场的宏观特征。在这个框架中,金融代理人的模型与他们的互动模型是分开的。相反,在这里,我们探索了让交互拓扑从代理行为模型中出现的可能性。然后,我们研究关系的新兴蜘蛛网如何影响整体市场动态。为此,我们利用了来自复杂系统分析和非线性动力学的工具,并将相互影响的网络建模为描述边缘演化的动力学系统的输出。在这项工作中,链接演变的驱动力是可能耦合的代理之间的相对声誉。声誉的建立取决于投资者的合理程度。连续的边缘激活或去激活引起了领导者和特殊网络结构的出现,这是实际影响网络的典型特征。在部分由理性投资者组成的特定情况下,通过广泛的数值模拟研究了对市场动态的后续影响。

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