Improved Confidence Interval for Average Annual Percent Change in Trend Analysis

摘要

This paper considers an improved confidence interval for the average annual percent change in trend analysis, which is based on a weighted average of the regression slopes in the segmented line regression model with unknown change-points. The performance of the improved confidence interval proposed by Muggeo is examined for various distribution settings, and two new methods are proposed for further improvement. The first method is practically equivalent to the one proposed by Muggeo, but its construction is simpler and it is modified to use the t-distribution instead of the standard normal distribution. The second method is based on the empirical distribution of the residuals and the resampling using a uniform random sample, and its satisfactory performance is indicated by a simulation study.