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Fragmentation integration and macroprudential surveillance of the US financial industry: Insights from network science

机译:美国金融业的分散整合和宏观审慎监管:来自网络科学的见解

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摘要

Drawing on recent contributions inferring financial interconnectedness from market data, our paper provides new insights on the evolution of the US financial industry over a long period of time by using several tools coming from network science. Relying on a Time-Varying Parameter Vector AutoRegressive (TVP-VAR) approach on stock market returns to retrieve unobserved directed links among financial institutions, we reconstruct a fully dynamic network in the sense that connections are let to evolve through time. The financial system analysed consists of a large set of 155 financial institutions that are all the banks, broker-dealers, insurance and real estate companies listed in the Standard & Poors’ 500 index over the 1993–2014 period. Looking alternatively at the individual, then sector-, community- and system-wide levels, we show that network sciences’ tools are able to support well-known features of the financial markets such as the dramatic fall of connectivity following Lehman Brothers’ collapse. More importantly, by means of less traditional metrics, such as sectoral interface or measurements based on contagion processes, our results document the co-existence of both fragmentation and integration phases between firms independently from the sectors they belong to, and doing so, question the relevance of existing macroprudential surveillance frameworks which have been mostly developed on a sectoral basis. Overall, our results improve our understanding of the US financial landscape and may have important implications for risk monitoring as well as macroprudential policy design.
机译:利用最近从市场数据推断出金融互连性的贡献,我们的论文通过使用来自网络科学的多种工具,对美国金融业在长期内的发展提供了新的见解。依靠股票市场收益的时变参数矢量自回归(TVP-VAR)方法来检索金融机构之间未观察到的有向联系,我们从某种意义上说是建立了一个完全动态的网络,即联系随着时间而发展。被分析的金融体系由155个金融机构组成,这些金融机构都是1993-2014年间列入标准普尔500指数的所有银行,经纪交易商,保险和房地产公司。从个人,部门,社区和系统范围的各个层次来看,我们发现网络科学的工具能够支持金融市场的众所周知的功能,例如雷曼兄弟倒闭后连通性急剧下降。更重要的是,通过不太传统的度量标准(例如部门接口或基于传染过程的度量),我们的结果证明了公司之间独立于其所属部门的碎片化阶段和整合阶段并存,并且对此提出了质疑。现有的宏观审慎监督框架的相关性,这些框架大多是在部门基础上制定的。总体而言,我们的结果提高了我们对美国金融前景的理解,并可能对风险监控以及宏观审慎政策设计产生重要影响。

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