Analysis on urban densification dynamics and future modes insoutheastern Wisconsin USA

摘要

Urban change (urbanization) has dominated land change science for several decades. However, few studies have focused on what many scholars call the urban densification process (i.e., urban intensity expansion) despite its importance to both planning and subsequent impacts to the environment and local economies. This paper documents past urban densification patterns and uses this information to predict future densification trends in southeastern Wisconsin (SEWI) by using a rich dataset from the United States and by adapting the well-known Land Transformation Model (LTM) for this purpose. Urban densification is a significant and progressive process that often accompanies urbanization more generally. The increasing proportion of lower density areas, rather than higher density areas, was the main characteristic of the urban densification in SEWI from 2001 to 2011. We believe that improving urban land use efficiency to maintain rational densification are effective means toward a sustainable urban landscape. Multiple goodness-of-fit metrics demonstrated that the reconfigured LTM performed relatively well to simulate urban densification patterns in 2006 and 2011, enabling us to forecast densification to 2016 and 2021. The predicted future urban densification patterns are likely to be characterized by higherdensities continue to increase at the expense of lower densities. We argue thatdetailed categories of urban density and specific relevant predictor variablesare indispensable for densification prediction. Our study provides researchersworking in land change science with important insights into urban densificationprocess modeling. The outcome of this model can help planners to identify thecurrent trajectory of urban development, enabling them to take informed actionto promote planning objectives, which could benefit sustainable urbanizationdefinitely.