Uncertainty and variability in computational and mathematical models of cardiac physiology

摘要

Key points class="unordered" style="list-style-type:disc" id="tjp7214-list-0001">Mathematical and computational models of cardiac physiology have been an integral component of cardiac electrophysiology since its inception, and are collectively known as the Cardiac Physiome.We identify and classify the numerous sources of variability and uncertainty in model formulation, parameters and other inputs that arise from both natural variation in experimental data and lack of knowledge.The impact of uncertainty on the outputs of Cardiac Physiome models is not well understood, and this limits their utility as clinical tools.We argue that incorporating variability and uncertainty should be a high priority for the future of the Cardiac Physiome.We suggest investigating the adoption of approaches developed in other areas of science and engineering while recognising unique challenges for the Cardiac Physiome; it is likely that novel methods will be necessary that require engagement with the mathematics and statistics community.