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Bayesian Network analysis of piglet scours

机译:仔猪冲刷的贝叶斯网络分析

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摘要

Diarrhoeal disease (scours) in piglets, often associated with enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC), is a substantial financial burden to the pig industry worldwide. Previous research has not explicitly examined the relationships between farm, pen and microbiological factors. Here we present a state of the art analysis to reveal empirical indirect – as well as direct – associations between management factors as putative risks for scours in pre- and post-weaned piglets. A Bayesian Network is constructed to identify the optimal structural model describing the relationships between risk factors. An additive model is then built to estimate more epidemiologically familiar odds ratios. Farm-level variance dominates the model, making many pen-level associations null. However, there is evidence that pre-weaning scours are less likely on farms with <400 sows (0.14, 0.03–0.50). Our results strongly suggest that smaller production units (piglets/pen) could reduce the incidence of scours in piglets. There is also some evidence that ownership of other livestock is a potential risk factor for pre-weaning scours, although this was observed only at one farm. Future research should be directed at better understanding the role of herd size and investigating the relationship between managing other livestock and the occurrence of scours in pig herds.
机译:仔猪的腹泻病(痢疾)通常与产肠毒素的大肠杆菌(ETEC)有关,是全世界养猪业的重大财务负担。先前的研究没有明确检查农场,围栏和微生物因素之间的关系。在这里,我们提供了一种最新的分析方法,以揭示管理因素之间的经验性间接和直接关联,作为断奶前后仔猪冲刷的推定风险。建立贝叶斯网络以识别描述风险因素之间关系的最佳结构模型。然后建立一个加性模型来估计更流行病学上熟悉的比值比。场级方差主导模型,使许多笔级关联为空。但是,有证据表明,母猪<400头的农场断奶前冲刷的可能性较小(0.14,0.03-0.50)。我们的结果强烈表明,较小的生产单位(仔猪/围栏)可以减少仔猪冲刷的发生率。还有一些证据表明,其他牲畜的所有权是断奶前冲刷的潜在危险因素,尽管这仅在一个农场观察到。未来的研究应针对更好地了解畜群规模的作用,并调查管理其他牲畜与猪群中冲刷发生之间的关系。

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