No-take marine reserves (NTMRs) are expected to benefit fisheries via the net export of eggs and larvae (recruitment subsidy) from reserves to adjacent fished areas. Quantifying egg production is the first step in evaluating recruitment subsidy potential. We calculated annual egg production per unit area (EPUA) from 2004 to 2013 for the commercially important common coral trout, Plectropomus leopardus, on fished and NTMR reefs throughout the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Geographic region, NTMR status, fish size, and population density were all found to affect EPUA. The interactions among these factors were such that, EPUA on NTMR reefs compared to reefs open to fishing was 21% greater in the southern GBR, 152% greater in the central GBR, but 56% less in the northern GBR. The results show that while NTMRs can potentially provide a substantial recruitment subsidy (central GBR reefs), they may provide a far smaller subsidy (southern GBR), or serve as recruitment sinks (northern GBR) for the same species in nearby locations where demographic rates differ. This study highlights the importance of considering spatial variation in EPUA when assessing locations of NTMRs if recruitment subsidy is expected from them.
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