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A Possible Role of Dust in Resolving the Holocene Temperature Conundrum

机译:粉尘在解决全新世温度难题中的可能作用

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摘要

Climate models generally fail to produce a warmer (by as much as 0.5 °C) early to mid-Holocene than the pre-industrial in the global annual temperature, which has been termed the Holocene temperature conundrum. Here we use a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to test whether the conundrum can be partially resolved by considering the fact that atmospheric dust loading was much reduced during the early to mid-Holocene. Our experiments show that the global annual mean surface temperature increases by 0.30 °C and 0.23 °C for the mid-Holocene (6 ka) and early Holocene (9 ka), respectively, if the dust is completely removed. The temperature increase scales almost linearly with the fraction of dust being removed, with the 50% dust reduction experiment for the 6 ka being the only one deviating from the linear trend. The indirect effect of dust, which is highly uncertain and is not included in the model, may further enhance the warming. Therefore, the neglect of dust reduction in the Holocene in climate models could contribute significantly to the model-data discrepancy, especially in the Northern Hemisphere.
机译:在全球年平均温度下,气候模型通常无法在全新世早期到中期将比新世代之前的工业温度更高(高达0.5°C),这被称为全新世温度难题。在这里,我们考虑到全新世早期至中期的大气尘埃负荷大大减少这一事实,使用完全耦合的大气-海洋总循环模型测试难题是否可以部分解决。我们的实验表明,如果完全去除尘埃,则全新世中期(6 ka)和全新世早期(9 ka)的全球年平均表面温度分别升高0.30°C和0.23°C。温度升高几乎与去除的灰尘成线性比例,其中6 ka的50%降尘实验是唯一一个偏离线性趋势的实验。高度不确定的粉尘间接影响未包括在模型中,可能会进一步加剧变暖。因此,忽略气候模型中全新世的降尘可能会极大地加剧模型数据的差异,特别是在北半球。

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